(Difference between revisions)
| Revision as of 12:08, 27 July 2006 Peter (Talk | contribs) (→'''Forecasting Yield''') ← Previous diff |
Current revision Laos (Talk | contribs) |
||
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
| <blockquote> | <blockquote> | ||
| - | ='''Introduction'''= | + | __NOTOC__ |
| + | ==Welcome to the Crop Monitoring Box documentation== | ||
| + | ------------------------------------ | ||
| + | ===1. Introduction=== | ||
| - | '''[[Chapter1|Chapter 1]].''' The raison d'être of the crop forecasting. | + | [[Chapter1|1.1.]] General introduction to crop forecasting and its methods. |
| - | '''[[Chapter1|Chapter 1]].''' Quick overview of FAO food security work. Presentation of the overall crop forecasting philosophy adopted by FAO | + | [[Chapter2|1.2.]] Crop forecasting philosophy of FAO, an overview. |
| - | '''[[Chapter2|Chapter 2]].''' Introduction into the principles of crop modelling (including basic crop model overview) and their implementation in AgroMetShell and the CMBox. The principle of indicators like ETa and the WSI index. | + | [[Chapter3|1.3.]] The principles of crop modelling and their implementation in the CMBox. |
| - | '''[[Chapter3|Chapter 3]].''' Presentation of Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) and its role in the calculation of crop water budgets and crop forecasting | + | [[Chapter5|1.4.]] Crop yield forecasting with water balance calculations. |
| - | '''[[Chapter4|Chapter 4]].''' Introduction to Remote Sensing (CCD and NDVI) and its role in crop forecasting | + | [[Chapter6|1.5.]] Introduction to CMBox software, data formats and GIS. |
| - | '''[[Chapter5|Chapter 5]].''' Introduction to GIS and formats. | + | ===2. A crop monitoring network === |
| - | </blockquote> | + | |
| - | <blockquote> | + | [[Chapter7|2.1.]] The two basic modelling options: grid-based and station-based |
| - | ='''Gathering data and getting them right. '''= | + | [[Chapter8|2.2.]] Setting up a monitoring network. |
| - | '''[[Chapter6|Chapter 6]].''' The two basic modelling options: gridding before modelling, and modelling before gridding. Advantages and disadvantages in terms of errors, labour and accuracy of forecasts. | + | [[Chapter9|2.3.]] Selection of a reference period. |
| - | '''[[Chapter7|Chapter 7]].''' Setting up a monitoring network. | + | ===3. Gathering and calculating weather data === |
| - | '''[[Chapter8|Chapter 8]].''' Selection of reference periods: a compromise between statistical significance and agronomic significance. | + | [[Chapter10|3.1]]. Entering and importing normal and actual weather data. |
| - | '''[[Chapter9|Chapter 9]].''' Practical introduction to Geostatistics and the spatial interpolation of agroclimatic and other variables. This contains a description of LocClim and SEDI | + | [[Chapter11|3.2]]. Computing the reference evapotranspiration ET<sub>0</sub>. |
| - | '''[[Chapter10|Chapter 10]].''' Development of practical and simplified PET and radiation computation procedure. | + | [[Chapter12|3.3]]. Preparing and using the dekadal rainfall and ET<sub>0</sub> database for crop monitoring |
| - | '''[[Chapter11|Chapter 11]].''' Preparation of ten-daily PET maps (36 dekads per calibration year) | + | ===4. Gathering and calculating crop data === |
| - | '''[[Chapter12|Chapter 12]].''' Preparation of ten-daily rainfall maps (36 dekads/year). If necessary, develop a technique to derive/interpolate rainfall based on Global Telecommunications System (GTS of WMO) and Japanese meteorological satellite images | + | [[Chapter15|4.1]]. Defining cropping practices and conditions and preparation of polygons for main crop growing areas in the country. |
| - | '''[[Chapter13|Chapter 13]].''' Analysis of time series of climate and crops to identify trends, if they are present. Construction of detrended crop yield time series | + | [[Chapter14|4.2]]. Analysis of time series of climate and crops to identify trends. Detrending yield. |
| - | '''[[Chapter14|Chapter 14]].''' Preparation of polygons for main crop growing areas in the country and define cropping practices and conditions (planting/transplanting, soil features, irrigation water amounts...) | + | ===5. Techniques to use when data are unavailable=== |
| - | </blockquote> | + | |
| - | <blockquote> | + | [[Chapter13|5.1]]. Introduction to Geostatistics and the spatial interpolation of weather and crop data. |
| - | ='''Using satellite imagery'''= | + | [[Chapter33|5.2]]. Filling gaps in agricultural statistics. |
| - | '''[[Chapter15|Chapter 15]].''' Development of a standard procedure to define actual phenology (in particular crop planting date), based on local practice and satellite imagery | + | ===6. The FAO water balance model and its crop forecasting indicators=== |
| - | '''[[Chapter16|Chapter 16]].''' Extract Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images for the country from the global data | + | [[Chapter18|6.1.]] The FAO Water Balance Model. Monitoring crops. |
| - | </blockquote> | + | [[Chapter19|6.2.]] Gathering all data into the FAO AgroMetShell crop simulation software. |
| - | <blockquote> | + | [[Chapter20|6.3.]] Run the Water Balance model. Understanding the output of the model. |
| - | ='''Running the FAO water balance model '''= | + | ===7. From water balance indicators to yield estimates=== |
| - | '''[[Chapter17|Chapter 17]].''' Crops that can be monitored, including specific crops like irrigated crops. | + | [[Chapter22|7.1]]. Calibrate crop yields against water balance outputs and other variables. |
| - | '''[[Chapter17|Chapter 17]].''' Read all data prepared above into the AgroMetShell crop simulation software (AMS) | + | [[Chapter23|7.2]]. Considerations when computing crop yield maps and create forecasts. |
| - | '''[[Chapter18|Chapter 18]].''' Run AMS for the historical time period, extract average water balance parameters over main crop growing areas | + | ===8. Independent indicators=== |
| - | '''[[Chapter19|Chapter 19]].''' Prcatical introduction to multiple regression techniques and the selection of variables through a principal components analysis | + | [[Chapter21|8.1]]. Examples of other weather based indicators. |
| - | '''[[Chapter20|Chapter 20]].''' Calibrate crop yields against water balance outputs and other variables against and validate the coefficients. | + | [[Chapter4|8.2.]] Remote Sensing and its role in crop forecasting. |
| - | </blockquote> | + | |
| - | <blockquote> | + | ===9. Data and information dissemination=== |
| - | '''[[Chapter21|Chapter 21]].''' Using equations derived under 19) above, compute crop yield maps and derive tables of agricultural statistics from the maps (the forecasts) | + | [[Chapter24|9.1]]. Prepare write-up of products for crop monitoring bulletins |
| - | '''[[Chapter22|Chapter 22]].''' Prepare write-up of the products above as inputs to national crop monitoring bulletins | + | [[Chapter44|9.2]]. Outline of a Weather Impact Bulletin |
| - | ='''Setting up a crop monitoring system'''= | + | ===10. Setting up a crop monitoring system=== |
| - | '''[[Chapter23|Chapter 23]].''' Resources required | + | [[Chapter27|10.1]]. Introduction |
| - | '''[[Chapter24|Chapter 24]].''' Where to get assistance | + | [[Chapter25|10.2]]. Resources required |
| + | [[Chapter26|10.3]]. How to get assistance | ||
| + | |||
| + | [[Glossary|Glossary]] | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ------------------------------------ | ||
| </blockquote> | </blockquote> | ||
Current revision
[edit]Welcome to the Crop Monitoring Box documentation
[edit]1. Introduction
1.1. General introduction to crop forecasting and its methods.
1.2. Crop forecasting philosophy of FAO, an overview.
1.3. The principles of crop modelling and their implementation in the CMBox.
1.4. Crop yield forecasting with water balance calculations.
1.5. Introduction to CMBox software, data formats and GIS.
[edit]2. A crop monitoring network
2.1. The two basic modelling options: grid-based and station-based
2.2. Setting up a monitoring network.
2.3. Selection of a reference period.
[edit]3. Gathering and calculating weather data
3.1. Entering and importing normal and actual weather data.
3.2. Computing the reference evapotranspiration ET0.
3.3. Preparing and using the dekadal rainfall and ET0 database for crop monitoring
[edit]4. Gathering and calculating crop data
4.1. Defining cropping practices and conditions and preparation of polygons for main crop growing areas in the country.
4.2. Analysis of time series of climate and crops to identify trends. Detrending yield.
[edit]5. Techniques to use when data are unavailable
5.1. Introduction to Geostatistics and the spatial interpolation of weather and crop data.
5.2. Filling gaps in agricultural statistics.
[edit]6. The FAO water balance model and its crop forecasting indicators
6.1. The FAO Water Balance Model. Monitoring crops.
6.2. Gathering all data into the FAO AgroMetShell crop simulation software.
6.3. Run the Water Balance model. Understanding the output of the model.
[edit]7. From water balance indicators to yield estimates
7.1. Calibrate crop yields against water balance outputs and other variables.
7.2. Considerations when computing crop yield maps and create forecasts.
[edit]8. Independent indicators
8.1. Examples of other weather based indicators.
8.2. Remote Sensing and its role in crop forecasting.
[edit]9. Data and information dissemination
9.1. Prepare write-up of products for crop monitoring bulletins
9.2. Outline of a Weather Impact Bulletin
[edit]10. Setting up a crop monitoring system
10.1. Introduction
10.2. Resources required
10.3. How to get assistance