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| A crop forecast programme involves a number of institutions at different administrative levels of the government. As timeliness is crucial it is necessary that deadlines be specified for all activities relating to crop forecasting. Accuracy may sometimes have to be compromised in favor of timeliness. | A crop forecast programme involves a number of institutions at different administrative levels of the government. As timeliness is crucial it is necessary that deadlines be specified for all activities relating to crop forecasting. Accuracy may sometimes have to be compromised in favor of timeliness. | ||
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Revision as of 11:55, 24 September 2006
9.2. Prepare write-up of the products above as inputs to national crop monitoring bulletins
During the crop growing cycle there should be close interaction between the staff responsible for the different methods used and cross-checking of information obtained. For example, based on rainfall monitoring it may appear there is a serious dry spell in a certain crop zone, but the monthly crop report mentions favourable crop conditions. Zooming in on this area, it may simply be found that errors or omissions have occurred, that the location of a raingauge is not representative for the area, that actual planting dates were different from what was assumed etc.In case there are serious unexplained contradictions between the various indicators, a fact-finding mission may have to be sent to the field. An ad-hoc rapid assessment may involve a rough and ready sample survey. A small number of farmers in a few selected villages will be visited and interviewed.
It is recommended that meetings of a multi-disciplinary Technical Committee at Provincial level are held at least three times during the main crop season. The most important meeting takes place shortly before the harvest of the main food crops. The Committee reviews the results of all methods used, together with any other relevant information, for example loans issued during the crop season by the agricultural credit banks. The methods described provide either qualitative indications or an estimate of crop area and yield as a percentage increase/ decrease compared to the previous year or compared to a normal year. Use of forecast sample surveys will bring a quantitative estimate of crop area and in some cases of crop yield.
There are no hard and fast rules how to combine the results of the various methodologies. The weight to be given to each component depends on the characteristics of each crop zone and also on the quality of the staff and working conditions of the different services.
All available information will be compared and cross-checked as much as possible. When experience is built up over a few years and the quality of data and its interpretation improve, there should be a convergence of the various indicators.
A Technical Committee at National level will review and aggregate the estimates sent by all provinces, after checking consistency and plausibility (see chapter 7). Additional information available at national level will also be used.
Depending on the organization and coverage of the system, forecasts may be issued for: a) food crops, widely grown by smallholders: cereals, pulses, possibly root crops b) high-value crops such as onion, garlic, chilly, ginger c) the production of the commercial sector and State farms, for food crops and cash crops (optional)
It is recommended that three forecasts are made for each of the target crops viz. an early forecast soon after the end of the planting season, a mid season forecast after flowering (in the case of cereals) and a final forecast when the crops are close to maturity.
Crop damage by natural catastrophes that occurred in early or mid-season should be reflected in the crop reports sent from the Provinces and also in the results of sample surveys that have been undertaken. Catastrophic events may also take place shortly before harvest. In that case it is recommended to asses the damage separately and deduct this production loss from the crop forecast that had been made previously.
All data analysis and development of models for crop forecasting require that current as well as historical data should be readily available to the users. To facilitate the availability, access and use of required data, it is advisable to create a database for crop forecasting, with an appropriate mechanism for updating and retrieving the data. It should contain data from all components of the system.
6.2 Dissemination and confidentiality6.2.1 General Dissemination procedures and confidentiality of the information depend on the type of forecasting system in use in each country:
a) If the centrepiece of the crop forecasting system is a nation-wide sample survey, then the forecast will come in the form of specific numbers of crop area in ha. or acre and production in tonnes, with confidence limits in percentage, based on the calculation of sampling errors. The processing of the survey data will be done centrally and results become available all at once. The information may be seen as sensitive and confidential in this case and dissemination procedures will need to be controlled.
b) The system is based on information gathering from many sources, including crop reporting, agro-meteorological monitoring and satellite imagery and is more decentralized. The forecast of crop area and production is in terms of increase or decrease compared to last year. The reports issued by the Technical Committee at Provincial level will deal in detail with the specific factors that influenced the crop during the season. The crop forecasts at national level will emerge gradually rather than appear on one specific day. Using this kind of procedures, the information will be less sensitive and confidential.
6.2.2 Confidentiality of crop forecasts Domestic supply conditions are a key factor in the day-to-day business decisions of traders, millers and other processing industries. Therefore, a reliable crop production forecast can be considered as sensitive information. Premature or privileged disclosure of the forecast data would give certain individuals or groups an unfair advantage in the market and industry. It is therefore necessary that the forecasts are officially made available to all users, at the same time.
It can also be argued that there is an advantage in a more open procedure of crop forecasting. The early dissemination of crop forecasts, if sufficiently reliable, will be useful for the marketing process to the advantage of traders and farmers. An open dialogue with the private sector may also point to shortcomings of the information and stimulate internal discussion for the improvement of the system.
6.2.3 Timetable A crop forecast programme involves a number of institutions at different administrative levels of the government. As timeliness is crucial it is necessary that deadlines be specified for all activities relating to crop forecasting. Accuracy may sometimes have to be compromised in favor of timeliness.
For a very informative distance learning unit entitled "Reporting Food Security Information" click